在短暂乐观情绪之后，美国消费者信心再次受到打击。After a brief flirtation with good cheer, US consumer confidence is on the back foot again. 最新的福布斯益普索消费者信心双周追踪调查显示，消费者信心指数较两周前下降4%至53.1，较疫情前水平下降了7个百分点。The latest Forbes Advisor-Ipsos Consumer Confidence Biweekly Tracker dropped 4% from two weeks ago to 53.1. That’s a solid 7 points below its pre-pandemic level. 消费者对美国经济愈加悲观，63%的受访者认为在不久的将来通胀将继续上升。The increased pessimism dovetails with the 63% of respondents who said that they believe inflation will go up in the near future. 高盛个人金融管理公司总经理杰森·戈多称：“所有人都非常关心通货膨胀问题，因为我们都要购买食物。”“Inflation is on the top of everyone’s mind,” said Jason Gordo, managing director at Goldman Sachs Personal Financial Management. “We’re all buying food.” 考虑到抑制物价增长的难度，消费者的消极情绪可能会持续很长一段时间。Given how hard it will be to tamp down price growth, consumers are likely to be in a sour mood for a long while. 尽管就业市场强劲，但美国消费者对自己的财务状况并不满意。American consumers are dissatisfied with their financial situation despite a robust job market. 福布斯益普索调查的就业指数在过去两周保持稳定，远高于历史平均水平。The jobs index of the Forbes Advisor-Ipsos survey held steady over the past two weeks, and remains well above its historical average. 这与美国劳工统计局最新的就业数据相符，该机构报告3月份的失业率为3.6%。与此同时，首次申请失业救济人数已降至1968年以来的最低水平。That jibes with the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs data, which reported an unemployment rate of 3.6% in March. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since 1968. 但该调查的当前消费者信心指数（衡量人们目前对财务状况的看法）在过去两周下降了4个百分点，较2020年3月的水平降低了10个点以上。But the survey’s current index, which gauges how people feel about their finances right now, dropped 4 points over the last two week, and is now more than 10 points lower than where it stood in March 2020. 当前指数走弱最可能是受到美国高通胀的持续影响。最近一次调查前不久发布了3月消费者价格指数（CPI），该数据显示，CPI年化通胀率上升8.5%，创下美国40年来历史新高。The continuing impact of high inflation is the most likely candidate for the weaker current index. The most recent survey was conducted shortly after the March consumer price index (CPI) data, which showed annualized CPI inflation up 8.5%, another four-decade high. 虽然工资增长强劲，但仍受到通货膨胀的侵蚀。根据美国劳工统计局数据，从2021年3月到2022年3月的实际收入（即根据年度通货膨胀的影响进行调整的薪酬）下降了2.7%。And while wages are seeing strong growth, they’re still being eroded by inflation. Real earnings—that is pay adjusted for the impact of annual inflation—dropped 2.7% from March 2021 to March 2022, per the BLS. 美国民众的购买力继续被物价上涨所侵蚀。这意味着更多的消费者现在可能会避免在疫情期间购买高价商品，尤其是在供应链混乱继续扰乱产品供应的情况下。Americans continue to see their purchasing power eroded by price increases. That means more consumers may now avoid the kinds of big-ticket purchases they had been making during the pandemic, especially as supply chain snarls continue to disrupt product availability. 事实上，只有38%的受访者表示，与六个月前相比，他们更愿意进行大额消费，较之前的调查下降了6个百分点。这对美国经济来说是个坏消息，像这样的消费者情绪可能会让人们担心再次出现经济衰退的可能性。In fact, just 38% of survey respondents said they were more comfortable making a big purchase than they were six months ago, down six percentage points from the prior survey. That’s bad news for the US economy, and attitudes like these may be contributing to talk about the possibility of a renewed recession. 不断上升的通胀预期和消极的消费者让将在今年和明年持续加息的美联储面临着巨大挑战。Rising inflation expectations and reticent consumers pose big challenges for the Federal Reserve as it continues to raise interest rates throughout 2022 and into next year. 美联储正在努力抑制通货膨胀，但新一轮衰退的威胁意味着不能把利率提高得太高或太快。The Fed is striving to dampen inflation, but the threat of a new recession means it can’t raise rates too high or too quickly. 美联储进退两难的一个迹象是抵押贷款利率上升，这已经对美国房主和购房者产生了负面影响。One sign of the Fed’s dilemma can be seen in rising mortgage rates, which are already having a negative impact on US homeowners and home buyers alike. 根据最新的福布斯益普索调查，美国人预测抵押贷款利率将持续攀升。近60%的受访者表示，他们认为未来抵押贷款利率会上升，而只有6%的受访者认为会下降。According to the most recent Forbes Advisor-Ipsos survey, Americans expect mortgage rates to keep climbing. Nearly 60% of respondents said they think mortgage rates will rise in the future, compared to just 6% who believe they’ll go down. 房地产市场放缓可能进一步威胁美国经济。房屋均价创历史新高，30年期固定利率抵押贷款自2011年以来首次达到5%，比四个月前高出近两个百分点。A slowing housing market could further threaten the US economy. The average price for a home is at an all-time high, while 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit 5% for the first time since 2011, and are almost two percentage points higher than was the case just four months ago. 该调查对投资前景的黯淡解读不足为奇，因为在股市动荡的同时，债券市场也在为利率上升而挣扎。The survey’s reading on the investing outlook was bleak, which is not surprising given the bond market’s struggles with rising interest rates at the same time as the stock market is being whipped around by staggering volatility. 该调查的投资指数跌幅最大，较2020年3月的水平低10个百分点。The survey’s investment index dropped more than any other, and is presently 10 points lower than its March 2020 level. 在过去的三个月里，债券投资者遭遇重创。彭博社美国政府债券指数第一季度下跌5.5%，为1980年以来的最差表现。Bond investors have gotten their teeth knocked over the past three months. The Bloomberg US Government Bond Index dropped 5.5% in the first quarter, its worst performance since 1980.